Market Trends

I will be regularly posting articles on Market trends on this page. While it is almost impossible to predict what is happening, it is really good to get a grasp on some of the trends in the broader market. These artciles include aspects of technical analysis of the markets, and there is some reference to what is happening in the gold and oil markets - these both can have profound effects on the greater market. Of course, all of these have some reference to the options markets. You will find these links interesting and informative.

Will 1,650 Offer Buying Support for the SP500?

August 16, 2013. On Friday, the S&P hit a support zone of 1,655, and held its downward momentum in the current market correction, which was predicted by Options Trading Signals a couple of weeks ago. The market could break through this support for a major correction and downswing, or it could bounce off and break through the resistance above it. If it does the latter, then we must brace for a full correction later on. You can read an article with more details and the implications for options trading, including technical charts, here.

The S&P 500 is Plagued with Divergences

August 6, 2013. With the huge variety of technical signals available, how do you know which one to choose? Do you trade with the professionals, or as a contrarian? How can you tell the probabilities of a market change, especially when there are major divergences in the prices and trading volumes of the market? Here is an article that looks at using probabilities based on options prices, and predicting a downturn in the next 6-8 weeks. Here are all the charts and technical information: Options Trading Signals.

Continuous Commodity Index Points to Rally in Gold & Silver

July 15, 2013. Commodity prices have been dropping over the last few months, and there has been a money flow from bonds into stocks, driving a rally in the stock market. This is often a contrarian bearish sign, but the rally looks set to continue until late in the summer. Here are all the charts and technical information: The Gold & Oil Guy.

Gold vs. S&P 500 - Where is the Value

March 28, 2013. The economy and the stock market are becoming increasingly disconnected. As political decisions and Federal Reserve decisions are being made which appear to be preventing a huge economic meltdown in the short term, are they setting us up for an even bigger meltdown later on? In the meantime, the stock market steams on relentless. Who is going to blink first? Here are some charts that illustrate the position: here.

Charts for Technical Traders

January 15, 2013. The dollar index appears to have bottomed out, and this putting pressure on stocks and commodoties. Crude oil could be on the verge of a downward break, and gold is in a definite downwards trend. Bonds are also marching higher, which could mean more pressure on stocks. The S&P Futures are looking downwards, although there may be support at 1445. All the charts can be found together by clicking here.

Crude Oil, Oil Stocks and What they say about the Year End

October 30, 2012. Crude oil prices follow a seasonal pattern, based primarily on demand as the winter closes in. There have already been some large price swings this year, with WTI Crude oil topping out at $100 in September. The election and the Super Storm will all have an influence, but there seems to be a likelihood of prices dropping until the last days of the year. See the charts and analysis here

Seasonal Crude Prices

The Market is Primed to Grow - all the charts are here

October 5, 2012. The Stock Market is primed for major long term growth from this point forward. However, there are still plenty of sentiment driven fluctuations. The US election, the European Central Bank decisions, and various reports about the world economy provide short term shifts, which is an ideal environment for swing trading. Short term swings are, more than ever, news dependant and the long term view is bullish. The different charts in this article tell the story better than words can describe.

Could we be returning to the Gold Standard?

September 5, 2012. Governments across the world have been adding to their gold stocks in record levels of purchasing. The Republicans have been talking about setting up a commission to investigate the possibility of the USA returning to the gold standard. It will probably fail, as the last one in the Reagan years failed. Nevertheless, the increased government purchasing of the precious metal could indicate a return to a greater reliance on gold as a reserve. This could lead in the medium or longer term to an upward breakout of a 12 month consolidation of gold prices. All the technical analysis is here at the click of a mouse button.

Copper Prices signal a Top for the S&P

August 20, 2012. The VIX is at its lowest point in 2012, and there is no trading interest in puts for the VIX, which indicates that there is a strong feeling in the market that it could turn up in the next 2-3 weeks. The S&P is at a major resistance point near $1440. However, more telling is that copper futures are floating along an important support line. If there is a downward break on copper prices, which seems fundamentally possible, it could have a major effect on the general market. What will be the trigger? One possibility is the upcoming Federal Reserve summit in Jackson's Hole. You can get the full analysis with charts by clicking on the link.

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  • There are some pretty good market analysts out there who keep a finger on the pulse of market trends. I don't need to repeat their work! I do find these articles extremely useful - they help me keep an eye on the big picture. Of course, in reading about broader market trends, I also learn a lot about technical analysis as well.